A global pact for sustainability

Global warming and environmental degradation are already impacting human well-being. However, the worst could be yet to come. At the current rate of emissions, less than 30 years remain to limit the temperature increase to 2 °C, a threshold considered by scientists to be the point of no return beyond which there are high risks of massive and irreversible damage on a global scale¹.

This panorama has led to an important global consensus on the need to protect the environment, with efforts dating back to the last third of the 20th century. Diagram 4.1 shows global efforts for environmental sustainability, highlighting, on the one hand, the main milestones in international agreements for environmental and biodiversity protection and, on the other, those concerning the response to climate change.

With regard to climate change, the most notable recent milestone is the Paris Agreement, which sets as its central objective «to hold the increase in the global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels» (United Nations, 2015). 

The Paris Agreement is a major breakthrough for a concerted response to the climate crisis. The strong adherence achieved, with almost all countries participating and proposing national contributions, is its greatest achievement. As of November 2024, 195 countries have joined, of which 33 are from Latin America and the Caribbean. Its governance model, in which countries propose their own commitments, has favored adherence. However, it also has implicit weaknesses associated with the lack of a coordinated vision to ensure consistency between commitments and the remaining carbon budget, and the absence of mechanisms to ensure compliance with commitments. 

Under the Paris Agreement, Latin America and the Caribbean committed to reduce its emissions by approximately 11% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels. This target contemplates mitigation efforts comparable to those of developed economies, considering that the projected population growth for the region is higher and that it seeks economic growth that will allow it to approach the GDP per capita levels of these developed economies. Specifically, given the projected population growth, if per capita GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean grows at an annual rate of 4 %, the region would have to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by approximately 5.5 % per year. This percentage is comparable to the cut required in the European Union, which needs to reduce its emissions per unit of GDP by 5.24 % per year, assuming economic growth of 2 %. However, this required reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean more than doubles the decline observed in this variable over the last decade.

It is worth noting that these commitments defined by the countries represent an intermediate step towards the goal of pursuing environmental sustainability. To stop global warming completely, net-zero emissions are required, and for the average temperature peak to remain below 2°C, this reduction must be accelerated. According to Climate Watch’s Net-Zero tracker (2024), at the time of writing, 101 countries, together accounting for more than 80 % of global emissions, have committed to net-zero emissions targets. With respect to the date, 69 of them by 2050, 10 before 2050, 16 after 2050, and 6 have already achieved net-zero emissions status, with a commitment to maintain it. 

However, the current commitments are incompatible with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. To date, the sum of the commitments will increase the global average temperature by approximately 2.5 degrees, with possibilities of reaching even 3 degrees; and the combination of the actions effectively implemented gives an even more alarming picture (Climate Action Tracker, 2023).

What we have today is a diplomatic process very much associated with annual climate conferences […] which have a process, a timeline, a speed of action that is incompatible with the challenge […] We have this institutional challenge of coordinating the action of countries, which are relatively few. The G20 represents 80 % of the problem, in general terms, so it is a relatively small set of countries that can do a lot.

Based on an interview with Juliano Assunção

Concern for the extinction of species has a foundational milestone in the creation of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature in 1948. However, environmental actions gained momentum after the creation of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1972, in an effort to coordinate environmental actions at the international level and assist countries in implementing environmental legislation.

Among the most successful environmental protection initiatives are those for the protection of air pollution. Among these, the Vienna Convention—and, within it, the Montreal Protocol for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985)—is considered one of the most effective. It was ratified by 196 countries and, since its entry into force, has been associated with an almost total elimination of emissions of gases covered by the protocol.

The creation of UNEP took place in the context of a greater demand for environmental quality that gave momentum to regulations for environmental protection on a national scale, in particular, the requirement of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) for the approval of productive projects. The United States was a pioneer with the approval of the National Environmental Policy Act (1970). However, the EIA requirement became widespread in developing countries in the 1990s, largely driven by the incorporation of environmental safeguards in World Bank-financed projects (see Operational Directive 4.01 on environmental analysis). To date, EIAs are a central component of environmental policies; more than 190 countries incorporate laws associated with the use of this instrument (Morgan, 2012).

International governance has made less progress in protecting ecosystems and biodiversity than in climate change. The main coordinating body, the 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity, has worked to set conservation targets. Among the efforts made since then, the Aichi Targets, promulgated in 2010, stand out, the most recent milestone being the Global Biodiversity Framework, signed at the COP in 2022.

This framework identifies 4 goals and 23 targets for urgent action in the decade to 2030, including ensuring that by 2030 at least 30 % of areas of degraded terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine ecosystems are being effectively restored (target 2), and achieving and enabling that, by 2030, at least 30 % of terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine areas, especially those of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, are conserved and effectively managed through protected area systems (target 3)².